One of the biggest uncertainties about this week’s local elections is how well Reform UK will perform in what is a key electoral test. With 1,630 candidates standing across England, this cycle marks the party’s most ambitious local campaign to date, reflecting its intent to establish a robust foothold in local governance and use it as a potential springboard for the Welsh and Scottish Elections in 2026. 

As the prospect of significant local gains for Reform UK grows, questions naturally arise about what a council led by the party might look like and how it would operate. Drawing on recent local policy announcements and Reform UK’s national platform, we’ve outlined some initial thoughts and observations on what such a council could prioritise and how it might function. 

Key Target Areas: 

• North of England: Although local elections are not taking place in the North’s big city regions, the region is likely to be a focus for national speculation of whether the “Red Wall” is now leaning to Reform. Leader Nigel Farage has emphasised Doncaster as a primary target, aiming to build on previous electoral performances and strengthen the party’s local influence by beating incumbent Mayor Ros Jones, who has held the position for the last 12 years. Another key target is County Durham, where all of the council’s 98 seats are up for election. And of course there are two big mayoral races taking place in Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire, with Reform candidates Luke Campbell and Dame Andrea Jenkyns both tipped to perform well. 

• East of England: The party has a strong focus here, particularly in counties like Essex, Norfolk, and Lincolnshire. Notably, three of Reform UK’s five Members of Parliament represent constituencies in this region, including leader Nigel Farage in Clacton. 

• Greater Manchester: Reform UK is contesting all or most seats in areas such as Bolton, aiming to capitalise on previous UKIP support.  

• West Midlands: The party is targeting councils like Sandwell, focusing on regions where they believe there is potential for electoral gains. 

• South West England: Efforts are concentrated in places like Plymouth, where Reform UK is fielding candidates across multiple wards. ​ 

• Other Notable Areas: The Isle of Wight and Carmarthenshire have also been identified as regions with potential for Reform UK gains, given the surge in support observed during the 2024 General Election. 

A consistent theme coming out of recent elections globally is the significant challenge facing incumbents. 

Incumbents—particularly those from the two major parties or those who have held power for extended periods—are facing significant threats from populist parties on both the left and right of the political spectrum. It will be interesting to see whether this trend is reflected at the local level in the UK. 

Potential Core Priorities of a Reform UK-led council: 

1. Cutting Council Spending and Bureaucracy 

• Reducing so-called “wasteful” council spending – with DOGE-style spending cuts. 

• Streamlining council departments and services to cut costs. 

• Auditing budgets to eliminate perceived inefficiencies. 

2. Lower Council Tax 

• A push to freeze or a reduction of council tax bills. 

• Campaigning against increases and levies that burden residents. 

3. Law and Order / Anti-Social Behaviour 

• Stronger emphasis on law and order at the local level. 

• Support for community policing, more CCTV, and crackdowns on anti-social behaviour. 

• Pressure on local police and partnerships to deliver visible enforcement. 

4. Planning and Development Control 

• Opposition to large-scale housing developments, especially on greenbelt land. 

• Greater emphasis on local consent for planning decisions. 

• There is likely to be scepticism toward renewable energy projects such as wind farms, particularly if they are seen as imposed or lacking local support. More broadly, this could signal the beginning of local resistance to climate change mitigation efforts in some areas, potentially affecting flood prevention measures, future planning developments, and broader investment opportunities. 

5. Immigration and Housing 

• A review of housing allocations with particular impacts for asylum seekers and refugees 

• Calls for more transparency in housing policies and prioritisation of “local people first.” 

6. Public Services Reform 

• Push for efficiency and possible privatisation or outsourcing of services. 

• Opposition to council “activism” or to spending on diversity and inclusion initiatives, which are perceived as ideological. 

7. Freedom of Speech / Anti-Woke 

• Opposition to perceived political correctness in local government. 

• Possible moves to cut funding for equality, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) programmes or reframe them under different language. 

Likely Council Character and Governance Style 

• Populist Tone: Messaging would likely emphasise so-called “common sense” decisions, local people’s views, and a rejection of “establishment” politics. 

• Direct Communication: Use of personal social media and public meetings to engage residents and bypass traditional media or official, corporate channels. 

• Conflict with Central Government or Civil Servants: Especially if rules or regulations are branded as overreach or red tape. 

• Focus on Visibility: Councillors may favour short-term, highly visible initiatives—such as fixing potholes, increasing street cleaning, or addressing local policing concerns—even if this comes at the cost of long-term investment. This may be accompanied by populist gestures that generate attention or social media traction without delivering substantial outcomes. A notable example is Ben Houchen’s campaign to secure Protected Designation of Origin status for the Teesside Parmo. 

Wider information: 

While we can’t be certain how Reform UK would run a council, it’s worth noting that the party’s predecessor – UKIP – led Thanet District Council in Kent from May 2015 to February 2018. Given the historical and ideological ties between UKIP and Reform UK, looking back at UKIP’s time in control can offer useful insights into how Reform UK might approach council leadership. 

During this period, the Thanet District Council faced significant financial difficulties including: 

• Low Reserves: The council’s reserves were critically low, holding only £6.6 million, which was less than one-third of the recommended amount for a council of its size. This left the council vulnerable to unexpected financial pressures. 

• Unexpected Costs: The council encountered several unplanned expenses, including issues related to Transeuropa Ferries, live animal exports, and a substantial overspend on the Dreamland heritage park. 

• Government Funding Cuts: Thanet District Council experienced a nearly 40% reduction in revenue support grants from the central government over four years. This significantly impacted their budget and ability to provide services. 

• Asset Sell-Offs: To manage its financial situation, the council had to sell off various assets and make substantial cuts to balance the books 

These elections will give us an idea of how popular Reform UK has become since the general election. If the results go their way, we could get our first glimpse of how the party would govern. Regardless of political views, Reform – like UKIP during the Brexit referendum – have been a successful campaigning force, but would they be effective at governing given the myriad issues currently facing local, regional, and national governments? 

The breaking news from Canada that Mark Carney and his party have won the federal election – defeating Pierre Poilievre both nationally and in his local district – could be an indicator that populist politics may not be electorally sustainable in the long term. That those who experience the impacts of populist policies up-close ultimately return to more modest politics. 

As voters begin to experience the real-world effects of Trump-style policies at the local level, the question arises: can Reform maintain its current electoral momentum? And how can centrist or left of centre parties learn lessons from Mark Carney’s stunning victory to bring politics back to the centre ground? 

These are hugely significant times for the political picture in the UK and worldwide, and this week’s local elections could be an important barometer for where national and global politics are heading next. 

By Sami Garratt, Account Manager